Telenor ASA TEL
Oslo Børs · Communication Services · Telecom Services
134.50 NOK
−1.5%
2026-11-06
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Guidance from Telenor
BetaWhat the company says it expects, and how often it has delivered on it.
Guidance in the latest report
Raised
read by AI
Guidance met
42%
12 statements, 5 years
Met or beaten
42%
7 of 29 met since 2014
Guidance in the latest report
- Telenor Group organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (FY 2026)
“Flat to slightly negative organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (p. 5) - Telenor Group free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum (FY 2026)
“Free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum of around NOK 10 billion.” (p. 5) - Nordic telcos organic growth in service revenues (FY 2026)
“Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in service revenues;” (p. 5) - Nordic telcos organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (FY 2026)
“Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (p. 5) - Nordic telcos capex to sales (excluding leases) (FY 2026)
“Around 14% capex to sales (excluding leases).” (p. 5) - Effective tax rate (FY 2026)
“The effective tax rate for 2026 is estimated to be around 14%.” (p. 5) - Revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway, slightly more than NOK 0.5 billion, tapering off and disappearing in 2027 (FY 2026)
“We continue to expect full-year 2026 revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway to be slightly more than NOK 0.5 billion, broadly in line with 2025, but to taper off and disappear in 2027.” (p. 5) - Stronger-than-usual seasonal sales & marketing spending (Q4 2026)
“We expect stronger-than-usual seasonal sales & marketing spending in the fourth quarter.” (p. 5) - Free cash flow negatively impacted by working capital timing effects (Q4 2026)
“We also expect the free cash flow in the fourth quarter to be negatively impacted by working capital timing effects which had a positive impact in Q3.” (p. 5) - Remaining cost savings from simplified organisational structure phased in (first half of 2027)
“The remaining NOK 0.3 billion will be phased in during the first half of 2027.” (p. 4) - Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and new spectrum commitments (2028)
“Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and potential new spectrum commitments2, of NOK 12-13 billion in 2028, increasing further to NOK 14-15 billion in 2030;” (p. 5) - Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and new spectrum commitments (2030)
“Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and potential new spectrum commitments2, of NOK 12-13 billion in 2028, increasing further to NOK 14-15 billion in 2030;” (p. 5) - Return on capital employed above 11% (2028)
“Return of capital employed above 11% in 2028, and above 12% in 2030;” (p. 5) - Return on capital employed above 12% (2030)
“Return of capital employed above 11% in 2028, and above 12% in 2030;” (p. 5) - Year-on-year growth in dividend per share (medium term)
“Year-on-year growth in dividend per share;” (p. 5) - Net leverage ratio (medium term)
“Net leverage ratio of 1.8x – 2.3x.” (p. 5) - Telenor Nordics organic growth in service revenues (2028/30)
“Low single-digit organic growth in service revenues;” (p. 5) - Telenor Nordics organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (2028/30)
“Low-to-mid single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (p. 5) - Telenor Nordics capex-to-sales ratio below 13% (2028)
“Capex-to-sales ratio tapering off to below 13% in 2028, and further down to 11-12% in 2030.” (p. 5) - Telenor Nordics capex-to-sales ratio (2030)
“Capex-to-sales ratio tapering off to below 13% in 2028, and further down to 11-12% in 2030.” (p. 5)
Guidance against the outcome
| Given | What | Period | Guided | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Revenue 2-3% organic growth in service revenues |
2025 | 2.0 % – 3.0 % | −4.2 % | Below |
| 2025-02-06 | EBITDA Mid single-digit organic growth in EBITDA before other income and expenses |
2025 | Up (from 35,567) | 34,292 | Below |
| 2025-02-06 | Revenue Low single-digit organic growth in service revenues |
2025 | Up (from 79,928) | 76,548 | Below |
| 2024-02-07 | Revenue expect low single-digit organic growth Nordic service revenues |
2024 | Up (from 80,452) | 79,928 | Below |
| 2024-02-07 | EBITDA expect mid-single digit organic EBITDA growth in 2024 |
2024 | Up (from 33,524) | 35,567 | Met |
| 2023-05-04 | Revenue Low to mid-single digit growth in Nordic service revenues |
2023 | Up (from 98,953) | 80,452 | Below |
| 2023-02-02 | Revenue expects low to mid-single digit growth for both service revenues and EBITDA in the Nordics |
2023 | Up (from 98,953) | 80,452 | Below |
| 2023-02-02 | EBITDA expects low to mid-single digit growth for both service revenues and EBITDA in the Nordics |
2023 | Up (from 43,117) | 33,524 | Below |
| 2022-05-03 | Revenue expects low single digit growth in organic service revenues |
full year 2022 | Up (from 82,087) | 98,953 | Met |
| 2022-05-03 | EBITDA expects organic EBITDA around 2021 level or slightly higher |
full year 2022 | Up (from 36,862) | 43,117 | Met |
| 2022-02-02 | Revenue expects low single digit growth in service revenues for the full year 2022 and... |
2022 | Up (from 82,087) | 98,953 | Met |
| 2022-02-02 | EBITDA expects EBITDA around 2021 level or slightly higher for the full year 2022 and... |
2022 | Up (from 36,862) | 43,117 | Met |
| 2021-05-04 | EBITDA expects organic EBITDA to remain around the 2020 level |
full year 2021 | Flat (from 58,565) | 36,862 | Below |
| 2021-05-04 | Revenue expects organic subscription and traffic revenues to remain around the 2020 level |
full year 2021 | Flat (from 122,811) | 82,087 | Below |
| 2020-04-28 | EBITDA expects lower EBITDA growth |
2020 | Down (from 50,276) | 58,565 | Above |
| 2020-04-28 | Revenue expects lower subscription and traffic revenues |
2020 | Down (from 27,070) | 122,811 | Above |
| 2019-07-16 | EBITDA a low single digit EBITDA decline |
2019 | Down (from 42,247) | 50,276 | Above |
| 2019-01-30 | Revenue excluding the operation in Thailand, we expect an organic subscription and traffic... |
2019 | 0.0 % – 2.0 % | −75.5 % | Below |
| 2017-07-17 | EBITDA lift the EBITDA margin guidance to 38–39%, from previously around 37% |
2017 | 38.0 % – 39.0 % | 40.0 % | Above |
| 2017-05-04 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of around 37% |
2017 | 37.0 % | 40.0 % | Above |
| 2017-02-02 | EBITDA expects an EBITDA margin of around 36% in 2017 |
2017 | 36.0 % | 40.0 % | Above |
| 2016-04-27 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and other expenses in the range of 33% to 34% |
2016 | 33.0 % – 34.0 % | 35.4 % | Above |
| 2016-02-10 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of 33% to 34% |
2016 | 33.0 % – 34.0 % | 35.4 % | Above |
| 2015-10-28 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of 34-35% |
2015 | 34.0 % – 35.0 % | 33.8 % | Below |
| 2015-05-06 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and other expenses in the range of 34-36% |
2015 | 34.0 % – 36.0 % | 33.8 % | Below |
| 2015-02-11 | EBITDA EBITDA margin in the range of 33-35% |
2015 | 33.0 % – 35.0 % | 33.8 % | Met |
| 2015-02-11 | Revenue mid-single digit organic revenue growth |
2015 | Up (from 29,101) | 128,175 | Met |
| 2014-10-29 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and expenses above 2013 level. |
2014 | Up (from 35,209) | 8,883 | Below |
| 2014-10-29 | Revenue Low single digit organic revenue growth. |
2014 | Up (from 104,027) | 29,101 | Below |
Amounts in NOK million. Each outcome counts from the day the report with the actual figure was published, as a backtest sees it. Hover a metric for the report's own words; click the date or the actual figure to open the report on its page.
Guidance only counts when it names a year or quarter and a figure the reports show: revenue, operating profit, margins, EPS and bank and insurance ratios. Read by an AI model and can be wrong. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Figures may contain errors from the data source.