Telenor ASA TEL
Oslobörsen · Kommunikationstjänster · Telecom Services
134,50 NOK
−1,5%
2026-11-06
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Prognos från Telenor
BetaVad bolaget säger att det förväntar sig, och hur ofta det har levererat.
Guidning i senaste rapporten
Höjd
läst av AI
Prognos uppnådd
42%
12 uttalanden, 5 år
Uppnådd eller överträffad
42%
7 av 29 uppnådda sedan 2014
Guidning i senaste rapporten
- Telenor Group organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (FY 2026)
“Flat to slightly negative organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (s. 5) - Telenor Group free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum (FY 2026)
“Free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum of around NOK 10 billion.” (s. 5) - Nordic telcos organic growth in service revenues (FY 2026)
“Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in service revenues;” (s. 5) - Nordic telcos organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (FY 2026)
“Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (s. 5) - Nordic telcos capex to sales (excluding leases) (FY 2026)
“Around 14% capex to sales (excluding leases).” (s. 5) - Effective tax rate (FY 2026)
“The effective tax rate for 2026 is estimated to be around 14%.” (s. 5) - Revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway, slightly more than NOK 0.5 billion, tapering off and disappearing in 2027 (FY 2026)
“We continue to expect full-year 2026 revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway to be slightly more than NOK 0.5 billion, broadly in line with 2025, but to taper off and disappear in 2027.” (s. 5) - Stronger-than-usual seasonal sales & marketing spending (Q4 2026)
“We expect stronger-than-usual seasonal sales & marketing spending in the fourth quarter.” (s. 5) - Free cash flow negatively impacted by working capital timing effects (Q4 2026)
“We also expect the free cash flow in the fourth quarter to be negatively impacted by working capital timing effects which had a positive impact in Q3.” (s. 5) - Remaining cost savings from simplified organisational structure phased in (first half of 2027)
“The remaining NOK 0.3 billion will be phased in during the first half of 2027.” (s. 4) - Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and new spectrum commitments (2028)
“Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and potential new spectrum commitments2, of NOK 12-13 billion in 2028, increasing further to NOK 14-15 billion in 2030;” (s. 5) - Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and new spectrum commitments (2030)
“Free cash flow before M&A, excluding dividends from associates and potential new spectrum commitments2, of NOK 12-13 billion in 2028, increasing further to NOK 14-15 billion in 2030;” (s. 5) - Return on capital employed above 11% (2028)
“Return of capital employed above 11% in 2028, and above 12% in 2030;” (s. 5) - Return on capital employed above 12% (2030)
“Return of capital employed above 11% in 2028, and above 12% in 2030;” (s. 5) - Year-on-year growth in dividend per share (medium term)
“Year-on-year growth in dividend per share;” (s. 5) - Net leverage ratio (medium term)
“Net leverage ratio of 1.8x – 2.3x.” (s. 5) - Telenor Nordics organic growth in service revenues (2028/30)
“Low single-digit organic growth in service revenues;” (s. 5) - Telenor Nordics organic growth in adjusted EBITDA (2028/30)
“Low-to-mid single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;” (s. 5) - Telenor Nordics capex-to-sales ratio below 13% (2028)
“Capex-to-sales ratio tapering off to below 13% in 2028, and further down to 11-12% in 2030.” (s. 5) - Telenor Nordics capex-to-sales ratio (2030)
“Capex-to-sales ratio tapering off to below 13% in 2028, and further down to 11-12% in 2030.” (s. 5)
Prognos mot utfall
| Given | Vad | Period | Prognos | Utfall | Resultat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Intäkter 2-3% organic growth in service revenues |
2025 | 2,0 % – 3,0 % | −4,2 % | Under |
| 2025-02-06 | EBITDA Mid single-digit organic growth in EBITDA before other income and expenses |
2025 | Upp (från 35 567) | 34 292 | Under |
| 2025-02-06 | Intäkter Low single-digit organic growth in service revenues |
2025 | Upp (från 79 928) | 76 548 | Under |
| 2024-02-07 | Intäkter expect low single-digit organic growth Nordic service revenues |
2024 | Upp (från 80 452) | 79 928 | Under |
| 2024-02-07 | EBITDA expect mid-single digit organic EBITDA growth in 2024 |
2024 | Upp (från 33 524) | 35 567 | Uppnådd |
| 2023-05-04 | Intäkter Low to mid-single digit growth in Nordic service revenues |
2023 | Upp (från 98 953) | 80 452 | Under |
| 2023-02-02 | Intäkter expects low to mid-single digit growth for both service revenues and EBITDA in the Nordics |
2023 | Upp (från 98 953) | 80 452 | Under |
| 2023-02-02 | EBITDA expects low to mid-single digit growth for both service revenues and EBITDA in the Nordics |
2023 | Upp (från 43 117) | 33 524 | Under |
| 2022-05-03 | Intäkter expects low single digit growth in organic service revenues |
full year 2022 | Upp (från 82 087) | 98 953 | Uppnådd |
| 2022-05-03 | EBITDA expects organic EBITDA around 2021 level or slightly higher |
full year 2022 | Upp (från 36 862) | 43 117 | Uppnådd |
| 2022-02-02 | Intäkter expects low single digit growth in service revenues for the full year 2022 and... |
2022 | Upp (från 82 087) | 98 953 | Uppnådd |
| 2022-02-02 | EBITDA expects EBITDA around 2021 level or slightly higher for the full year 2022 and... |
2022 | Upp (från 36 862) | 43 117 | Uppnådd |
| 2021-05-04 | EBITDA expects organic EBITDA to remain around the 2020 level |
full year 2021 | Oförändrad (från 58 565) | 36 862 | Under |
| 2021-05-04 | Intäkter expects organic subscription and traffic revenues to remain around the 2020 level |
full year 2021 | Oförändrad (från 122 811) | 82 087 | Under |
| 2020-04-28 | EBITDA expects lower EBITDA growth |
2020 | Ned (från 50 276) | 58 565 | Över |
| 2020-04-28 | Intäkter expects lower subscription and traffic revenues |
2020 | Ned (från 27 070) | 122 811 | Över |
| 2019-07-16 | EBITDA a low single digit EBITDA decline |
2019 | Ned (från 42 247) | 50 276 | Över |
| 2019-01-30 | Intäkter excluding the operation in Thailand, we expect an organic subscription and traffic... |
2019 | 0,0 % – 2,0 % | −75,5 % | Under |
| 2017-07-17 | EBITDA lift the EBITDA margin guidance to 38–39%, from previously around 37% |
2017 | 38,0 % – 39,0 % | 40,0 % | Över |
| 2017-05-04 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of around 37% |
2017 | 37,0 % | 40,0 % | Över |
| 2017-02-02 | EBITDA expects an EBITDA margin of around 36% in 2017 |
2017 | 36,0 % | 40,0 % | Över |
| 2016-04-27 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and other expenses in the range of 33% to 34% |
2016 | 33,0 % – 34,0 % | 35,4 % | Över |
| 2016-02-10 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of 33% to 34% |
2016 | 33,0 % – 34,0 % | 35,4 % | Över |
| 2015-10-28 | EBITDA EBITDA margin of 34-35% |
2015 | 34,0 % – 35,0 % | 33,8 % | Under |
| 2015-05-06 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and other expenses in the range of 34-36% |
2015 | 34,0 % – 36,0 % | 33,8 % | Under |
| 2015-02-11 | EBITDA EBITDA margin in the range of 33-35% |
2015 | 33,0 % – 35,0 % | 33,8 % | Uppnådd |
| 2015-02-11 | Intäkter mid-single digit organic revenue growth |
2015 | Upp (från 29 101) | 128 175 | Uppnådd |
| 2014-10-29 | EBITDA EBITDA margin before other income and expenses above 2013 level. |
2014 | Upp (från 35 209) | 8 883 | Under |
| 2014-10-29 | Intäkter Low single digit organic revenue growth. |
2014 | Upp (från 104 027) | 29 101 | Under |
Belopp i NOK miljoner. Varje utfall räknas från dagen då rapporten med den faktiska siffran publicerades, så som ett backtest ser det. Håll över ett nyckeltal för rapportens egna ord; klicka på datumet eller den faktiska siffran för att öppna rapporten på rätt sida.
Prognoser räknas bara när de anger ett år eller kvartal och en siffra som rapporterna visar: omsättning, rörelseresultat, marginaler, vinst per aktie samt nyckeltal för bank och försäkring. Läst av en AI-modell och kan vara fel. Inte investeringsråd.
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